Frontier CEO Brief: Reflections from EGYPES 2026

I am back at my office after an energising and exciting week in Cairo. Reflecting on reconnecting with old friends and making new ones; it is surely the people that make this industry special and unique, coupled with the profound and enduring strategic importance of hydrocarbons to the engine of global growth and wealth creation. It was my first time to EGYPES - Egypt Energy Show, although my team have made many pilgrimages and built our networks in the region. As I walked around the halls and met with key clients and government partners, I felt proud of our impact on the industry and the influence that we and Frontier held in Cairo through our work for the Egypt Upstream Gateway (EUG) over the last two years and the time and effort to build relationships with key players, the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources - Egypt.

It also felt significant that the industry turned out in force, not deterred by the jitters. The spirit of the industry is strong and resilient, and there was a clear sense that being present counted - that at a time when perhaps our Egyptian partners needed to feel it, we were all there to say: we are in this together.

That this moment could prove to be a watershed for all of us, and that Egypt and the East Mediterranean can turn this into an opportunity to unlock more oil and gas to power Europe and the economies of the future. Because surely, our biggest challenges are also our biggest opportunities?

Conversations on Strategic Roundtables and Panels were urgent and focussed on security of supply, speed of execution, regional integration and what it will actually take to bring meaningful new barrels and molecules to market in a tightening global energy system.

Egypt Is Moving from Ambition to a Mode of Execution

What came through clearly is that Egypt is no longer speaking about its hub ambitions in purely strategic terms. It is trying to operationalise them. The framework agreement signed between Egypt and Cyprus on the sidelines of EGYPES is a case in point. It creates the basis for future gas cooperation around the Kronos and Aphrodite fields, with Egypt positioning its existing LNG and export infrastructure as the route through which Cypriot gas can reach market. This is not a theoretical alignment. It is a practical system beginning to take shape, linking resource, infrastructure and demand across the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Deals Signed in Cairo Tell a Bigger Story

The Egypt–Cyprus agreement was the headline, but it sat within a wider set of signals coming out of Cairo. Agreements to advance Aphrodite, deepen regional cooperation and accelerate gas monetisation all point in the same direction. The region is moving from discovery to delivery. For years, the Eastern Mediterranean has been discussed as a basin of potential. What EGYPES showed is that the commercial architecture is now catching up. Infrastructure is being leveraged, partnerships are being formalised and the pathway to market is becoming clearer.

Energy Security Has Moved Back to the Centre of Strategy

One of the most important interventions during the week came from Ditte Juul Jørgensen , speaking on behalf of the European Union. Her message was direct and highly relevant to the tone of the conference. Energy policy today is not just about transition. It is about security, resilience and affordability. She referenced the growing instability across the Middle East, including risks to critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact this is already having on global markets. In the Keynote Ditte Juul Jørgensen said;

Let us use this moment: not only to respond to our current crisis, but to build a better future.

Europe, as she noted, remains exposed as a net gas importer, with volatility in oil and gas markets directly affecting competitiveness, industry and households. At the same time, the EU reaffirmed its commitment to long-term decarbonisation, while acknowledging a continued reliance on oil and gas imports for decades to come. That dual reality - transition alongside continued hydrocarbon dependence - was one of the most honest and important themes running through EGYPES this year.

Her remarks also reinforced the strategic importance of Egypt within this system. European funding commitments, including €90 million for grid modernisation and more than €34 million for green hydrogen projects such as Sokhna, are not isolated initiatives. They are part of a broader effort to anchor Egypt as a regional energy partner across both hydrocarbons and clean energy systems.

Investor Confidence Still Depends on the Basics Being Fixed

One of the more telling market signals ahead of EGYPES was Egypt’s continued effort to address arrears to international oil companies, which had previously reached around $6.1 billion and have now been significantly reduced. This may not be the most visible headline, but it is one of the most important. Capital does not flow without confidence in payment discipline, contractual clarity and regulatory stability. The push to restore credibility is as important as any licensing round or strategic agreement, in my view.

The Global Supply Problem Is Much Bigger Than Cairo

Set against all of this is a much bigger structural issue. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie highlights that the world’s 30 largest oil and gas companies face a 22 million boe/day production replacement gap (scenario dependent) by 2040 if they are to maintain current output levels. These companies collectively produce around 45–50 million boe/d, representing a significant share of global supply.

The scale of that challenge is difficult to fathom. Replacing that volume is equivalent to developing multiple Permian basins or more than a dozen Guyana-scale plays. The difference this time is that the conditions that enabled the last cycle of growth, particularly US tight oil expansion, are no longer as readily available.

Business unusual must prevail, and the industry must work harder to collaborate, deepen its understanding of the subsurface, and navigate above-ground risk with greater speed - doing so in ways not seen before in the history of the oil business.

This Is Why Upstream Is Back at the Centre of the Discussion

Longer-term projections reinforce this point. OPEC continues to project oil demand growth to around 123 million barrels per day by 2050, alongside a requirement for more than $18 trillion in upstream investment. Regardless of where one sits on demand outlooks, we need continued delivery at scale. My conclusion coming out of EGYPES is that the industry understands is gearing up for the challenges ahead.

The question now is who can move quickly enough with credibility and stability at the heart, to be part of the solution and seize the opportunity for their nations to supply the energy the world will need. I am confident this region, North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean will be central to that future.